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====1982 Lebanon War====
====1982 Lebanon War====


In 1982, Israel mounted a [[1982 Lebanon War|response]] to [[Palestinian Liberation Organization|PLO]] after PLO began shelling northern Israel.<ref name=schiff>Schiff & Yaari (1984), pp. 35–36</ref>. The war culminated in a seven-week long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, [[Beirut]], where the PLO had retreated. Israel's conduct of the war, particularly its bombardment of Beirut, was heavily criticized, not only by the international community but in Israel itself, where large antiwar protests took place.<ref name=layoun_p134/><ref name=mattar_p47/> The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.<ref name=hartley_pp91-92>Hartley ''et all'', pp. 91-92.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47/>
In 1982, Israel mounted a [[1982 Lebanon War|response]] to [[Palestinian Liberation Organization|PLO]] after PLO began shelling northern Israel.<ref name=schiff>Schiff & Yaari (1984), pp. 35–36</ref>. The war culminated in a seven-week long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, [[Beirut]], where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.<ref name=hartley_pp91-92>Hartley ''et all'', pp. 91-92.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47/>


According to the [[International Red Cross]], by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded&mdash;a civilian-combatant fatality rate of 5:1.<ref name=layoun_p134>Layoun ''et al'', p. 134.</ref> Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.<ref name=hartley_p91>Hartley ''et al'', p. 91.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47>Mattar, p. 47.</ref> This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of about 7:1.
According to the [[International Red Cross]], by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded&mdash;a civilian-combatant fatality rate of 5:1.<ref name=layoun_p134>Layoun ''et al'', p. 134.</ref> Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.<ref name=hartley_p91>Hartley ''et al'', p. 91.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47>Mattar, p. 47.</ref> This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of about 7:1.

Revision as of 00:14, 14 December 2010

In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by a particular belligerent, or to casualties in the conflict as a whole.

According to a 2001 study by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the civilian-to-soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, meaning ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.[1]

Conventional wars

Conventional wars are wars fought between states using conventional war tactics. This basically means regular armies fighting setpiece battles.[2] Conventional wars in the modern era have typically entailed high civilian casualty rates due to widespread economic disruption or collateral damage from artillery or air bombardment.

World War I

Main article: World War I casualties

Some 9 to 10 million combatants are estimated to have died during World War I, along with an estimated 6.6 million civilians. The civilian casualty rate in World War I is therefore approximately 2:3 or 40%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine or Spanish flu rather than military action. The relatively low rate of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the Western Front, were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones. Casualties for the Western allies, consequently, were relatively slight. Germany, on the other hand, suffered 750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the Allied blockade. Russia and Turkey suffered civilian casualties in the millions—the latter including at least 500,000 Armenians killed in the Armenian genocide.[3]

World War II

Main article: World War II casualties

According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. The civilian to combatant fatality rate in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%.[4] The high rate of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing lethality of strategic weapons, used to target enemy industrial or population centres, and famines caused by economic disruption. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by the Axis Powers as a result of racial policies (for example, the Holocaust) or ethnic cleansing campaigns.[3]

Korean War

The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. [5] One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.[6]

NATO in Yugoslavia

See also: Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force

In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were alleged to be conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.

Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.[7] Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.[8]

If the NATO figures are to be believed, NATO achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.

Unconventional wars

Unconventional wars are wars generally fought between state and non-state entities. Unconventional wars usually have a strong element of asymmetric warfare, meaning that one side is much more powerful than the other, forcing the other to adopt unconventional tactics, such as guerilla war or insurgency.[9] Some wars have elements of both conventional and unconventional war; for example, North Vietnam waged the Vietnam War mostly using guerilla tactics, but also occasionally mounted conventional offensives, such as the Tet Offensive.

Mexican Revolution (1910–20)

Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.[10][11]

Vietnam War

The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the war at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million - estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources.[12] This would give a civilian-combatant fatality rate of approximately 2:1, or about 65%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos.

Chechen wars

During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 43:10. The combined ratio for both wars is 76:10. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable. [13] The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.[14][15]

Coalition forces in the Iraq War

See also: Casualties of the Iraq War

According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.[16] It is not clear what percentage of civilians were killed in the initial (conventional war) invasion, as opposed to the percentage killed in the insurgency since.

US drone strikes in Pakistan

The civilian casualty rate for U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan is notoriously difficult to quantify. The U.S. itself puts the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the NGO CIVIC.[17] At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution suggests that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.[18] A study by the New America Foundation in February estimated that between 830 and 1,210 civilians in total have been killed by drone strikes since 2004, a civilian fatality rate of about 30%, or 1:2.[19]

Arab-Israeli conflict

1982 Lebanon War

In 1982, Israel mounted a response to PLO after PLO began shelling northern Israel.[20]. The war culminated in a seven-week long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.[21][22]

According to the International Red Cross, by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality rate of 5:1.[23] Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.[24][22] This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of about 7:1.

Targeted killings

Israel's military activities in the Israel-Gaza conflict have included a campaign of targeted assassinations of militants in the Gaza Strip since 2000, as well as several concentrated operations, the most severe of which was Operation Cast Lead during the 2008–2009 Gaza War.

The civilian casualty rate of the targeted assassinations was surveyed by Haaretz military journalist Amos Harel. In 2002 and 2003, the ratio was 1:1, meaning one civilian killed for every militant killed. Harel called this period "the dark days" because of the relatively high civilian death toll as compared to later years. He attributed this to an Israeli Air Force (IAF) practice of attacking militants even when they were located in densely populated areas. While there were always safety rules, argued Harel, these were "bent" at times in view of the target's importance.[25]

The civilian casualty ratio dropped steeply to 1:28 in late 2005, meaning one civilian killed for every 28 militants killed. Harel credited this drop to the new IAF chief Eliezer Shkedi's policies. The ratio rose again in 2006 to 1:10, a fact that Harel blamed on "several IAF mishaps". However, in 2007 and 2008 the ratio dropped to an unprecedented level of less than 1:30, or 2–3 percent of the total casualties being civilian.[25]

Figures showing an improvement from 1:1 in 2002 to 1:30 in 2008 were also cited by Jerusalem Post journalist Yaakov Katz. Katz attributes the IDF's low ratio in the year preceding the Gaza War to Israel's investment in special weapons systems, including small smart bombs that minimize collateral damage, and to an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone.[16]

Gaza War

See also: Casualties of the Gaza War

Several analysts have attempted to calculate the Israel Defense Force's cvilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead during the Gaza War. All have noted that the ratio differs significantly depending on which figures are used regarding the total number of casualties and their identity. The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.

Journalist Yaakov Katz states in The Jerusalem Post states that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he describes as unprecedented in modern warfare. In spite of this, Katz states that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the operation was 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures.[16] The UN-sponsored Goldstone Report accused Israel of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the war. Israel rejected the report's findings.[26]

In October 2009, Colonel Richard Kemp made a presentation to the United Nations Human Rights Council in response to the introduction of the Goldstone report that accuses Israel and Hamas of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the Gaza War. Kemp spoke to the UN HRC on behalf of UN Watch.[27] While Kemp acknowledges that "of course innocent civilians were killed. War is chaos and full of mistakes. There have been mistakes by the British, American and other forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq, many of which can be put down to human error. But mistakes are not war crimes.", Kemp states the following: "based on my knowledge and experience, I can say this: during operation Cast Lead, the Israeli Defense Forces did more to safeguard the rights of civilians in the combat zones than any other army in the history of warfare".[27][28]

See also

References

  1. ^ Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew W. Lehren, A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq, New York Times 22-10-2010
  2. ^ Duyvesteyn and Angstrom_pp71-80.
  3. ^ a b Neiberg, Michael S. (2002): Warfare in World History, pp. 68-70, Routledge, ISBN 978-0415229548.
  4. ^ Sadowski, p. 134. See the World War II casualties article for a detailed breakdown of casualties.
  5. ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.
  6. ^ Deane, p. 149.
  7. ^ Larson, p. 71.
  8. ^ Larson, p. 65.
  9. ^ Snow, pp. 64-66.
  10. ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
  11. ^ Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
  12. ^ "20 Years After Victory", Philip Shenon, clipping from the Vietnam Center and Archive website.
  13. ^ Zürcher, Christoph. The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus. p. 100.
  14. ^ "Russian Federation - Human Rights Developments", Human Rights Watch report, 1996.
  15. ^ Russian Federation 2001 Report Amnesty International
  16. ^ a b c Yaakov Katz, Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics, Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010
  17. ^ "Pakistanis protest civilian deaths in U.S. drone attacks", Saeed Shah, mcclatchy.com, 2010-12-10.
  18. ^ Daniel L. Byman, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
  19. ^ "Civilian deaths in drone attacks: debate heats up", Cyril Almeida, news.dawn.com, 2010-05-09.
  20. ^ Schiff & Yaari (1984), pp. 35–36
  21. ^ Hartley et all, pp. 91-92.
  22. ^ a b Mattar, p. 47.
  23. ^ Layoun et al, p. 134.
  24. ^ Hartley et al, p. 91.
  25. ^ a b Amos Harel, Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise, Haaretz (unknown date)
  26. ^ "Israel denies Gaza war crimes in report to UN", Rory McCarthy, irishtimes.com, 2010-02-01.
  27. ^ a b UK Commander Challenges Goldstone Report, UN Watch, 16 October 2009
  28. ^ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX6vyT8RzMo

Bibliography

  • Anstrom, Jan; Duyvesteyn, Isabelle (2004): Rethinking the Nature of War, pp. 72-80, Routledge, ISBN 978-0415354615.
  • Deane, Hugh (1999): The Korean War: 1945-1953, p. 149, China Books & Periodicals, ISBN 978-0835126441.
  • Hartley, Cathy et al (2004): Survey of Arab-Israeli Relations, p. 91, Routledge, ISBN 978-1857432619.
  • Larson, Eric V. (2007): Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime, pp. 65, 71, RAND Corp., ISBN 978-0833038975.
  • Layoun, Mary N. et al (2001): Wedded to the Land? Gender, Boundaries, & Nationalism in Crisis, p. 134, Duke University Press, ISBN 978-0822325451.
  • Mattar, Philip: (2005): Encyclopedia Of The Palestinians, p. 47, Facts on File, ISBN 978-0816057641.
  • Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): The Myth of Global Chaos, p. 134, Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 978-0815776642.
  • Snow, Donald M. (1996): Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts, pp. 64-66, Lynne Rienner Publishers, ISBN 978-1555876555.
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