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This article has been mentioned by multiple media organizations:

Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
Michael Booth (April 30, 2007). "Grading Wikipedia". The Denver Post.
Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.

This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page

Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

Archives

Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30
31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40
41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60
61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70
71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80
81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90
91, 92, 93, 94, 95

/Terminology section /General discussion

This page has archives. Sections older than 21 days may be automatically archived by when more than 4 sections are present.

Definition

In the first sentence, why is the term "Global Warming" defined using the phrase "since the mid-20th century"? That seems to be an arbitrary restriction on the definition with no reference given. Global warming has been happening for 12000 years (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation#Land-based_chronology_of_Quaternary_glacial_cycles). Has this definition been erroneously transferred from "anthropogenic global warming"? Or does Wikipedia make no distinction between cause and effect? Mrdavenport (talk) 19:44, 28 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

As per the article hat-note (before the first sentence), what you're looking for may be in Climate change or Paleoclimatology. --Nigelj (talk) 20:07, 28 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Just so you know, the 'global warming' that has been happening for the last 12000 years was us comming out of an ice age. In other words, that doesn't really count because it would have happened anyway. The point is that it should have slowed down, and it hasn't. If it hadn't been for human intervention in the last couple of centuries, the climate would have stablised. Just because to things have the same effect doesn't mean they are the same. 81.187.148.35 (talk) 12:37, 25 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

that doesn't really count because it would have happened anyway.... so why's this article called global warming when no one's ever proved it isn't natural variation and would happen anyway? Isonomia (talk) 18:57, 3 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

12,000 years....it's been cooling for the last 8,000 years now.[1] Kauffner (talk) 02:15, 3 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Kauffner-Where on the Vostok graph does it show "cooling for the last 8,000 years"? --CurtisSwain (talk) 05:05, 3 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Kauffner is right; there has been a slow decrease in reconstructed temps since the Holocene climatic optimum. Mrdavenport: the last glacial maximum is typically given as 21 ka and the hatnote on this article should tell you how WP uses the phrase (in order to free up "climate change" for the more general). To all - let's move on, as this doesn't seem to have anything to do with improving this article. Awickert (talk) 05:30, 3 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"Most scientists" should be changed to "an overwhelming majority of scientists" as cited source states. ("Most" could mean as little as 51 percent the cited source specifically states "overwhelming majority" and goes into details about the number of peer reviewed studies etc. Improves (talk) 18:27, 27 February 2011 (UTC)improves[reply]

Suggestion: Move to Global climate change?

I think a better name for this might be "Global climate change" since "global warming" is somewhat misleading. Essentially some (such as Fox News) state that excess snow fall in the eastern United States is blamed on "global warming" however snow and cold temperatures aren't warm. It is somewhat confusing since global climate change accounts for irregular weather patterns. What do others think? (especially those that have worked on this article extensively) If you Google "Global warming" / "Global climate change" I certainly see more results under Global climate change. CaribDigita (talk) 17:39, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I was trying to raise a similar point here before, see 'Request for clearer definitions of terminology and wikipedia page structure on 'climate change'/'global warming' in archive, except I was suggesting that the most appropriate term to use is simply 'climate change'. See the links I posted about the variation on the use of the two terms.86.171.71.177 (talk) 11:50, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If you search for the full phrases (using quote marks), "Global warming" wins with 40 million vs. 1.6 million (claimed hits, but then large Google counts are extremely unreliable). Google Scholar is 380000 vs. 260000, same direction. I see your point, but at least for now, I think WP:COMMONNAME still points us the the existing name. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:49, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

agree about the unreliability of the method, but when i do it 'global warming' comes up with 29M and 'climate change' comes up 50M, and I would expect that the large majority of the references to 'climate change' are talking about recent global anthropogenic climate change (rather than climate change in its more general sense in climatology).86.171.71.177 (talk) 11:50, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It's a terminology shift I think we are witnessing but its too early to tell whether it's going to be the dominant name for the phenomenon The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 17:58, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I agree that we are witnessing a terminology shift, however I think 'climate change' has already become the (more) dominant name for the phenomenon 86.171.71.177 (talk) 11:50, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I guess the people responsible for major social innovations like calling Royal Mail Consignia and Jif Cif have large gaps in their careers when there's nothing much doing. I don't think Fox News' inability to explain scientific relationships is reason enough for us to rename a major article too often. It looks like we have a redirect, perhaps we could debate over there which article that should point to? --Nigelj (talk) 19:05, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Since it's not warming at the moment (the last decade) I would agree with this change of name. Isonomia (talk) 19:03, 3 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

An unsupported assumption. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:03, 4 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"Essentially some (such as Fox News) state that excess snow fall in the eastern United States is blamed on "global warming" however snow and cold temperatures aren't warm."" That's why it is "global warming" not "eastern United States Warming," Calling it "global climate change" basically cedes the debate to the deniers. Modern climate science predicts "warming" not "change". And then there is the fact that calling global warming "climate change" was the originally the idea of Republican public opinion researcher Frank Luntz http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/2008/04/09/pr-versus-science-the-luntz-memo/115.192.145.206 (talk) 12:30, 12 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Please add error bars to Instrumental temperature record

Can we please add error bars (with 3 standard deviations) to the instrument temperature record data plot? There is a 5 year moving average, which of course has a smoothing effect. However, since this is only a measure of central tendency, it does not give a quantitative measure of data dispersion, which of course is provided by the standard deviation. If you can point me to the original data set, I can generate these. There is a great deal of scatter in these data. GaleForceWindz (talk) 05:19, 4 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

As it says in the image description, the data is taken from here, which also gives uncertainty estimates (shown by the green bars) that according to Hansen et al. 2006 represent 2 standard deviations for measurements taken at the end of the 19th century, mid 20th century and early 21st century. Adding these bars has been discussed before here, but the consensus was not to add them as I remember. Mikenorton (talk) 10:44, 4 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

GaleForceWindz, I think you'll find that the 'scatter', as you call it, is actual noise in the system due to complexity and chaos, rather than measurement uncertainty. By all means have a look at the original data, graphs and papers. --Nigelj (talk) 23:32, 4 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

P.S. One of the recent discussions about error-bars in the graph is now in this archive, with example images. Some other discussions are listed here --Nigelj (talk) 23:48, 4 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Move to Global warming per Revision history of Climate change ... regarding Food security.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Climate_change&diff=408750529&oldid=408742500

Effects

Substance shortages

Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming

One of the effects of climate change is food shortage. The combined effects of overpopulation and the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a worldwide food shortage as well as a shortage of other vital necessities.^[1]
The Food and Agriculture Organization, said in 2003 that teps must be taken to avoid a water crisis in the future.^[2]

99.181.152.66 (talk) 21:44, 6 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

And the question or comment is... what? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:16, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It should probably go in one of those topical articles and be fleshed out there before it is put here. Please also take care to read the article into which you are putting that information. Thanks, Awickert (talk) 07:09, 8 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I came across the Planetary boundaries article the other day. It's a strange title, but it may be close to what this is about. --Nigelj (talk) 10:12, 8 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Misleading graphs

The two headline graphs on the page - 'global temperatures' and 'surface and satellite temperatures' - are both somewhat misleading, and more suitable for advocacy than NPOV.

Aside from the widespread criticism of the GISS temperature record - others are more widely accepted by both skeptics and proponents - the first graph should be clearly labelled as anomalies, not temperatures. There has been (RS) criticism that it is (perhaps deliberately, probably subconsciously) chosen and presented in such a way as to create a link between the idea 'global temperature' and a graph spiking sharply upwards - although I can't find the source for that assertion right now, and it's probably not worth taking into account. Still, it should at least be properly titled.

The second graph is simply a puff-piece. Why is the trend measured over the period since Jan 1982, which just happens to start at the bottom of a trough? There's an interesting blink-graph I've seen somewhere which cycles through a number of different trend-lines fitted to the same data over different periods. If someone can track that down, it might be a good neutral piece to use.

I'm loathe to remove the graphs without any replacements ready, but they're not great as they are. The first is better than the second, but really neither is great. 94.170.107.247 (talk) 01:38, 12 February 2011 (UTC)Dave[reply]

Dave, before we begin, you need to realize that your claims holds no weight until it has been reliably sourced. Verifiability is a Wikipedia policy. On scientific articles such as this, academic and peer-reviewed publications are expected. I hope you appreciate that an assertion does not determine what goes into the article, but a sourced claim, and your sourced claim will be compared against those found on the image's file description. With this said, let's see your sources. --Tony 155.99.230.205 (talk) 07:06, 12 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Tony, on what basis are you claiming this article is "scientific"? The name clearly isn't scientific, it is the popular name of a political campaign. Global warming is no more scientific than "save the penguins". Yes you can draw graph after graph after graph and claim that the numbers of penguins is basically science, but anyone can see that you'd at least give it a scientific sounding name like AGW. To put in bluntly, this article is about global warming, it is not about global warming science, because if it was, that is the name it would have.85.211.192.249 (talk) 16:07, 15 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

@85.211, This article is a parent article which covers the entire climate change topic, including an entire field of scientific inquiry. I imagine that's what Tony means by "scientific", and if so, he would be correct. I can't address your particular concerns above until I have reliable sources to compare, so tracking those down would be useful for this discussion. All the best, — Jess· Δ ♥ 17:25, 15 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

problems with FAQ

I'm going to bring up issues about the FAQ here before I go and change anything. First of all, the FAQ states that an anti-global-warming petition uses the names of imaginary characters like "Perry Mason." However, there really is a Perry Mason, Ph.D -- he's a chemist in Texas. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition and (with photo) Perry Mason's university bio page — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices (talk • contribs) 01:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Stupid question, why is there an obvious BLP violation in the FAQ? The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 01:21, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see an obvious BLP violation. If you're referring to the "Perry Mason" bit, that was hardly obvious. Anyway I've fixed it (as you could have done yourself if that was the item of concern). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:56, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I couldnt figure out how to edit them. Are they transcluded from somewhere? The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 02:00, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, it's kind of confusing -- took a couple of tries to figure it out, and I'm a "regular" here. You click on the "faq page" link at the left of the bar (not the ? mark), then you can edit the FAQ page like any other. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:44, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting, and I think it gets a little stranger. Turns out people are adding fake names,[2] which makes it difficult discern those real people who happen to share the names of famous personalities.[3] I think the second bullet in FAQ 2 should say:

“

Some people listed are fake added by pranksters, while others are legitimate who happens to share the same name with a famous individual that may appear to be a fake. Arthur Robinson, a physical chemist who circulated the petition, stated "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake."[4]

”

But Boris has already fixed it, and I'm fine with whatever. What do you guys think? --CaC 155.99.231.35 (talk) 02:08, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think that would be fine. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:46, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Here's one that's a bit more complicated: George Waldenberger and his demand to be taken off Senator Inhofe's list of skeptical scientists. The way the FAQ is currently worded gives the impression that Waldenberger is falsely being labeled a skeptic. But the actual Senate report provides a direct quote from Waldenburger as follows:

“

"Well, I went to school at UCLA, a

big climate school. And it isn't really an issue as to if the global climate has been warming," Waldenberger said on April 11, 2007. "It has over the past 40 years. The question is what type of role do we take in that warming. Is it all natural fluctuations or are the increased concentrations of carbon dioxide part of this? And that's a subject that's up in the air," Waldenberger explained.

”

Perhaps, if Waldenberger is to be mentioned, we should refer to what he actually said, which is the reason for his continued inclusion in the report despite his demand to be removed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices (talk • contribs) 03:19, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It's hard to know when to stop. We could go further and note that George Waldenberger is a TV weathercaster, not a practicing scientist as implied by Inhofe's list. I think Waldenberger's personal statement is adequate without doing our own analysis of the situation. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:33, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Perhaps I should clarify my point about Waldenberger, which also applies to Steve Rayner (not Rainer; I'd correct it if I could figure out how). The FAQ as currently written gives the impression that Waldenberger and Rayner are NOT skeptical about global warming, and that their inclusion on the list is inappropriate. My point, and I ask other editors to share their opinions, is that both of these points are debatable:

--Inhofe's list quotes the words of Waldenberger and Rayner, so everybody can see what they said and wrote in public. As far as I know, neither one has retracted the public statements that led to their inclusion in the list.

--Therefore, some people might reasonably conclude that their inclusion in this list is appropriate, and wikipedia shouldn't take sides concerning this question the way it is doing now.--Other Choices (talk) 07:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I've amended the text so that it says the people in question "say they aren't skeptical." This avoids our taking sides, and is more consistent with Wikipedia's usual "he said, she said" approach. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:21, 23 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Red-linked "users"

The continuing nonsense from brand new accounts red-linked for lack of any user page content makes me wonder: would it be useful to restrict editing from new "users" until 48 hours after user page content has been added? That might slow down the nonsense, and even give us a chance to get ahead of it. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:05, 24 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thats something you would have to propose to the community at WP:VP/PR. The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 21:09, 24 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It would be ineffective, as if the sockmaster's behavior is identified, he simply changes his behavior so he no longer fits the criteria. Sailsbystars (talk) 22:06, 24 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think the community at large is not so closely impacted, is less interested. I think it would have some effectiveness, because a requirement to add anything on one's user page provides more opportunity to examine behavior. The extra work of adding something (which legitimate users do anyway) amounts to a significant increment of effort when creating multiple throw-away accounts. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:58, 25 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It wouldn't slow him down. In fact he went through a phase of trivially bluelinking his user and talk pages. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:13, 25 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

We used to have a crack team of sock-spotters here, and more recently there have been a few delays in identifying some of them. What we need to do may be to hang a bit looser, and not feel the need to rise to every bait laid on the talk page, en masse, within minutes, time after time. On most occasions, if the article isn't compromised, nothing is lost by leaving the odd assertion unchallenged here for a few hours. It makes it less fun for those who come here for their entertainment, and sensible discussions will still proceed at a slower pace. --Nigelj (talk) 23:55, 25 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Oh. Possibly a trivial bluelink is an insufficient indicator. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:49, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Raymond has a good point. Keni Rodgers (talk) 06:30, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Making any substantive decision on the basis of a redlinked userpage would be ineffective in handling this sophisticated and battle-hardened sock puppeteer. It would only present a very hostile face to newcomers--which is one of the problems of the handling of this topic that were raised by the arbitration committee last Autumn.

The idea of holding back from responding to controversial comments is very promising. A genuine newcomer wouldn't expect an instant response, but a talk page pile-on is the kind of thing that gratifies trolls. Tasty monster (=TS ) 09:05, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Or we could just ignore red-linked users? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:51, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Validity of science vs. cost of mitigation

Sailbystars' [edit] changes the description of the "ongoing ... debate" from "validity of the science" to "whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction'". These are very different issues. I haven't reverted because both statements have some validity, but this change is something that ought to be discussed before being unilaterally made. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:59, 27 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Oh, I welcome discussion. My edit was made under WP:BRD and I'm open to the R to the original version. Let's look at a few versions of that sentence that we had:

1. The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B] Nevertheless, political and public debate continues. (original)
2. The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B] Since consensus does not constitute proof, the political and public debate continues.(Amazeroth v. 1)
3. While the scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring[8][9][10][B], the political and public debate about the theory continues. (Amazeroth v.2)
4. While the scientific consensus is that human activity contributes significantly to global warming[8][9][10][B], there is an ongoing political and public debate over the validity of the science. (Pseudo-Richard)
5. While the scientific consensus is that human activity contributes significantly to global warming[8][9][10][B], there is an ongoing political and public debate over whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction. (my version)

Option 1 is acceptable, but vague and somewhat leaves the impression that public debate is without merit

Option 2 is the "it's only a theory" trope commonly used to downplay the strength of a science conclusion

Option 3 is not too bad. I still dislike the use of the word "theory" since scientists and the public use the word in different ways

Option 4 is a gross insult to scientists everywhere.

Option 5 takes on a bit of a different meaning, and perhaps a bit of wishful thinking on my part. Science can and is being debated by qualified scientists in the literature. In my idealized vision of the world, science has presented several scenarios, the likelihood and error bars of each scenario, and the consequences of each one. The debate in the public sphere should not be about the science, but whether action should be taken. Unfortunately, you have people like Sen. Inhofe and Lord Monckton who think that somehow they are smarter than thousands of scientists who have dedicated their careers to understanding this stuff, and I don't how how we can indicate in the article that this is a sensitive issue without insulting the work of those scientists or the intelligence and honor of such politicians. Thoughts? Sailsbystars (talk) 21:39, 27 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Just a quick side note, I had some discussion with Amazeroth on his or her talk page earlier today. Sailsbystars (talk) 21:50, 27 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Any thoughts? 1. Science is based on facts, on evidence, and as soon as you start talking about consensus you are talking about something that has no place in a scientific article. 2. There was also an "overwhelming consensus" on WMD - all the experts agreed, the evidence was compelling, unequivocal etc. etc. ... and likewise it just lacked that one essential ingredient: evidence! 85.211.230.148 (talk) 01:07, 28 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

^ [http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/world-food-shortage-in-10-years/story-e6frf7lf-1225991126558 World food shortage in 10 years] retrieved 19 January 2011
^ "No global water crisis - but may developing countries will face water scarcity", FAO.org 12 March 2003

[Powell2019-1] Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.

[WMO-FAQS-2] "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.

[3] Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)

[4] Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[5] Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[6] Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[7] Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[8] "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.

[9] Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.

[10] The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.

[11] "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.

[12] Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.

[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

[14] "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}

[15] Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

[16] Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.

[17] Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.

[18] Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.

[19] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[20] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[21] Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[22] Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[23] Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[24] Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[25] Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

[26] Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.

[27] Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.

[28] "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.

[29] Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

[30] [http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/world-food-shortage-in-10-years/story-e6frf7lf-1225991126558 World food shortage in 10 years] retrieved 19 January 2011

[31] "No global water crisis - but may developing countries will face water scarcity", FAO.org 12 March 2003

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@@ Line 199: / Line 199: @@
 :Option 5 takes on a bit of a different meaning, and perhaps a bit of wishful thinking on my part.  Science can and is being debated by qualified scientists in the literature.  In my idealized vision of the world, science has presented several scenarios, the likelihood and error bars of each scenario, and the consequences of each one.  The debate in the public sphere should not be about the science, but whether action should be taken.  Unfortunately, you have people like Sen. Inhofe and Lord Monckton who think that somehow they are smarter than thousands of scientists who have dedicated their careers to understanding this stuff, and I don't how how we can indicate in the article that this is a sensitive issue without insulting the work of those scientists or the intelligence and honor of such politicians.  Thoughts? [[User:Sailsbystars|Sailsbystars]] ([[User talk:Sailsbystars|talk]]) 21:39, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
 :Just a quick side note, I had some discussion with Amazeroth on [[User talk:Amazeroth|his or her talk page]] earlier today.  [[User:Sailsbystars|Sailsbystars]] ([[User talk:Sailsbystars|talk]]) 21:50, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
+::Any thoughts? 1. Science is based on facts, on evidence, and as soon as you start talking about consensus you are talking about something that has no place in a scientific article. 2. There was also an "overwhelming consensus" on WMD - all the experts agreed, the evidence was compelling, unequivocal etc. etc. ... and likewise it just lacked that one essential ingredient: evidence! [[Special:Contributions/85.211.230.148|85.211.230.148]] ([[User talk:85.211.230.148|talk]]) 01:07, 28 February 2011 (UTC)