2009 Iranian presidential election

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Iranian presidential election, 2009
← 2005 June 12, 2009 2013 →
 
Nominee Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Mir-Hossein Mousavi
Party ABII Independent Reformist
Popular vote 24,527,516 13,216,411
Percentage 62.63% 33.75%
Politics of Iran
Government of Islamic Republic of Iran
Leadership
Executive
Legislative
Judicial
Supreme Councils
Local governments
Elections
Political parties and factions
Inside government
Reformists
Principlists
Outside government
Monarchism
Liberalism
Nationalism
Pan-Iranism
Socialism
Ideology
Foreign relations
Related topics

The 2009 Iranian presidential election was held on 12 June 2009 in Iran,[1] the tenth presidential election to be held in the country.[2] The President of Iran is the highest official elected by direct popularly vote, but does not control foreign policy or the armed forces. Candidates have to be vetted by the Guardian Council, a twelve member body consisting of six clerics (selected by Iran's Supreme Leader), and six lawyers (proposed by the head of Iran's judicial system and voted in by the Parliament).[3]

With two-thirds of the votes counted, the Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's official news agency, announced that incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election with 66% of the votes cast.[4] Mir-Hossein Mousavi received 33% of the votes cast.[5][6] The European Union said it was "concerned about alleged irregularities" during the vote[7], and some analysts and journalists from United States and United Kingdom based media expressed doubts about the authenticity of the results.[8][9][10][11]

Mousavi issued a statement saying, "I'm warning that I won't surrender to this charade," and he urged his backers to fight the decision as well as to avoid committing acts of violence.[9] Protests, in favour of Mousavi and against the alleged fraud, broke out in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad, labeling his victory as a "divine assessment".[12]

Election process

Further information: [[:President of Iran]] and [[:Politics of Iran]]

Ahmadinejad became President of Iran after the 2005 election. The losing candidates at that time claimed irregularities at the polls, but the charges were not investigated.[12] The voting was scheduled for 13 June 2009 and ended up being extended until midnight that day because the turnout was unexpectedly high.[3]

The President is elected by direct vote, however candidates for the presidency must be approved by the 12-member Council of Guardians. Candidates need to win a majority (more than half) to become President. Iran has a two-round system: if none of the candidates wins the majority in the first round, the top two candidates will go to a run-off. The first round was held on 12 June 2009, and the run-off, if necessary, will be held one week later, on 19 June 2009.[13] All Iranian citizens of age 16 and up are eligible to vote. Both the Iranian Center for Statistics and the Iranian Ministry of the Interior have stated that there are around 46.2 million eligible voters.[14]

Candidates

On 20 May 2009, the Guardian Council officially announced a list of approved candidates, while rejecting a number of registered nominees.[15]

Approved candidates

Conservatives
Reformists

Rejected candidates

Conservatives
Independents

Withdrawn candidates

Potential candidates

The following people were said to be possible candidates in the election, but did not register within the five days allowed for registration.[21] Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President and chairman of the Assembly of Experts, would have been over 75 years old on the election day and therefore ineligible to run by election law.

Conservatives who declined to run
Reformists who declined to run

Campaign

Background

Further information: [[:Mir-Hossein Mousavi presidential campaign, 2009]] and [[:Major events in the Iranian reform movement]]
Mir-Hossein Mousavi supporters in Tehran.

The incumbent was Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian reform movement attempted to unite behind a single candidate; former President Mohammad Khatami had been the leading opponent to Ahmadinejad in some opinion polls until he withdrew and endorsed former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi.[28] Former Speaker of the Majlis Mehdi Karroubi, another Reformist, was also running, as was former Commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Mohsen Rezaee, a Conservative with a reputation of political pragmatism.[14] The election marked a return to the public spotlight for Mousavi, who had not received much attention since he served as Prime Minster in the 1980s.[29] Reformist opinions galvanized around him as the election grew nearer.[3]

The Telegraph has described the campaign as "unusually open by Iranian standards, but also highly acrimonious."[10] It was marked by heated rhetoric between the incumbent and his challengers. Mousavi and two other candidates said Ahmadinejad had lied about the state of the economy, which was suffering from high inflation and a fall in oil revenues from last year's record levels. Ahmadinejad responded by comparing his opponents to Adolf Hitler, adding that they could be jailed for their comments. "No one has the right to insult the president, and they did it. And this is a crime. The person who insulted the president should be punished, and the punishment is jail... Such insults and accusations against the government are a return to Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations... until everyone believes those lies," Ahmadinejad said.[29]

Debates about the economy played the biggest role in the campaign, with the global economic recession looming in people's minds.[14] About one in five Iranians live under the poverty line, inflation is at about 25 precent, and unemployment is at over 12.5 percent.[30] Mousavi advocated further privatization of the economy towards a free market in comparison to Ahmadinejad's pro-interventionist fiscal policy, with Ahmadinejad making measures to fight poverty a key principle in his campaign.[31] Mousavi drew his electoral base from the middle and upper classes while Ahmadinejad drew support from the urban poor and rural residents.[14] Ahmadinejad made financial support from the business class against him into a theme of attack.[30] BBC News has described his campaign as "one that foresees the death of capitalism".[9]

Mousavi also criticized Ahmadinejad for diplomatically isolating Iran by denying the Holocaust and making anti-Western speeches. He opposed the government's current strict enforcement of Islamic dress and social behavior as well.[31] He advocated eliminating the country's 'Vice Police'.[citation needed] Both candidates strongly supported further development of the Iranian nuclear program.[31] However, Mousavi advocated a less combative and tense tone with other nations about the program.[29] BBC News has stated about Mousavi that "[i]n foreign affairs, he seems to be offering little change on major issues".[14] Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Mohamad Bazzi has stated that "[i]f Mousavi wins, it could create a new opening for dialogue with the United States. Ahmadinejad's continued presence would be a major obstacle".[3]

American President Barack Obama posed a direct challenge to Ahmadinejad during his early June 2009 visit to Buchenwald concentration camp. He stated that Ahmadinejad "should make his own visit" to the camp and that "[t]his place is the ultimate rebuke to such thoughts, a reminder of our duty to confront those who would tell lies about our history". Analysts at the Fox News Network speculated that reformists within Iran could have been boosted by the rebuke.[32]

The campaign was the most expensive in the Islamic republic's history, with the two main candidates spending more than tens of millions of dollars in bid to convince voters to support them. Funds were spent on, among other things, a mass distribution of computerized propaganda, such as CDs and DVDs. Another interesting phenomenon which took place during the campaign was a dramatic rise in the number of text messages sent to Iranian cell phone subscribers, from 60 million messages a day to some 110 million.[30] Mousavi adopted the traditional Islamic color, green, as a campaign symbol. Young male supporters wore green ribbons tied around their wrists and young female supporters wore green headscarves. Activists used the term 'Change' as his main slogan, chanting phrases such as "Green change for Iran", "Together for change", and "Vote for change".[33]

Debates

Between 2 June and 8 June 2009 Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting broadcast nightly debates on TV channel IRIB 3 between two candidates at a time, with each candidate facing the others once. This was the first time Iran had held televised debates between candidates.[34] Each debate lasted for around one and half hours. During the debate on 3 June between President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and reformist rival, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Ahmadinejad made accusations regarding former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Iranian Revolution. Rafsanjani responded to these charges on 9 June in an open letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei requesting the he step in to rebuke Ahmadinejad for his comments at the debate.[35][36]

Opinion polls

The opinion polls in Iran have been considered unreliable.[37][38] A number of polls conducted between relatively small voting groups, like university students and workers, have been reported as election propaganda. More general polls reported in the media do not state the polling organization nor the basic facts about the methodology. The results show a high variance and depend heavily on who is reporting the poll.[39][38] In 2002, the polling organization Ayandeh and another polling organization was closed and its directors were arrested.[40] The director of Ayandeh, Abbas Abdi, spent several years in prison.[41]

Mousavi's and Karroubi's campaign posters in Tehran claimed that a high turnout would reduce Ahmadinejad's chance of winning the election.[33] Karroubi's campaign manager, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, claimed that the chance of Ahmadinejad losing the election would be over 65 percent if over 32 million people voted, but less than 35 percent if less than 27 million people voted.[33]

Immediately before the end of the election, the former Iranian president, Khatami, predicted that Mousavi would win.[42]

Polling Organisation Date Poll details Candidate
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Mehdi Karroubi Mir-Hossein Mousavi Mohsen Rezaee
reported by Rooz Online[43] before 9 June 2009 Nationwide; 7900 people 23% Unknown 54%–57% Unknown
Rahbord e Danesh, reported by Tabnak[44] before 9 June 2009 1743 people 25.5% 6.1% 37.6% 30.8%
reported by Alef [45] before 8 June 2009 Major cities 61.7 Unknown 28 Unknown
reported by Alef [45] before 8 June 2009 Tehran 42 Unknown 46 Unknown
IRIB, reported by Alef [46] before 7 June 2009 Tehran 47.5 Unknown 39.9 Unknown
IRIB, reported by Alef [46] before 7 June 2009 more than 16,000 people, 30 major cities in each Province 62.7 Unknown 25.7 Unknown
reported by Baznevis[47] before 6 June 2009 16,945 people 22.5% 7.5% 64% 4%
reported by ILNA[48] before 5 June 2009 Nationwide 300,000 people 24.61% 10.72% 54.53% 10.14%
Rahbord e Danesh, reported by Tabnak[49] before 3 June 2009 1743 people 29.5% 7.5% 37.5% 25.2%
Rayemelat[50] before 3 June 2009 Tehran 33% 10% 50% 6%
reported by Rajanews/Press TV[51] before 1 June 2009 major cities 53% Unknown 36% Unknown
Baznevis, reported by Tabnak[52] before 31 May 2009 Nationwide; 77,058 people 33% 3% 36% 27%
Aftab News, reported by Tabnak[52] before 31 May 2009 Nationwide; 18,391 people; (Who will you not vote for?) (62%) (7%) (28%) (4%)
Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak[52] 31 May 2009 Nationwide 32% 6% 36% 27%
reported by Ghalamnews[53] before 27 May 2009 1650 people 35% Unknown 54% Unknown
reported by Rayemelat[54] before 27 May 2009 Tehran only 36% 9% 48% 5%
Young Journalists Club (IRIB affiliated)[55] before 30 May 2009 Nationwide; 30,000 people 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
reported by Ayandeh News[56] before 26 May 2009 10 major cities 34% Unknown 38% Unknown
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting[56] before 26 May 2009 Tehran only 43% Unknown 47% Unknown
New America Foundation[57] before 20 May 2009 Nationwide; 1001 people 34% 2% 14% 1%
reported by Rayemelat[58] 14 May 2009 Tehran only 42% 6% 44% 4%
Etemad-e-Melli[59] before 13 May 2009 Nationwide 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak[52] 5 May 2009 Nationwide 38% 12% 32% 15%
reported by Rajanews/Press TV[60][61] 3 May 2009–4 May 2009 62 cities 59% Unknown 22% Unknown
Government[60] before 3 May 2009 Unknown 54% (45% in Tehran) Unknown 22% (29% in Tehran) Unknown
Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak[52] 4 April 2009 Nationwide 40% 8% 24% 1%
Worker's Statistical Institute[62] late March 2009 Nationwide survey of workers 36% 8% 52% Unknown
Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak[52] 5 March 2009 Nationwide 44% 7% 13% 0%

Irregularities

Violence

On 1 June, a campaign office of Ahmadinejad's primary opponent, Mir Hossein Moussavi, was torched. The office was located in the city of Qum, in northwest Iran. No group claimed responsibility for the attack. At the same time, it was reported that an assassination had been attempted against former president Mohammad Khatami by means of a bomb placed on an aircraft he was to board.[63]

Blocking of communications

On 23 May 2009, the Iranian government temporarily blocked access to Facebook across the country. Gulfnews.com reported that this move was a response to the use of Facebook by candidates running against the incumbent Ahmadinejad.[64] PC World reported that Mousavi's Facebook page had more than 6,600 supporters.[65] Access was restored by 26 May 2009.[66] On 13 June, it has more than 40,000 supporters.[67]

On 13 June 2009, when thousands of opposition supporters clashed with the police, it was filtered again. Some news websites were also blocked by the Iranian authorities. Mobile phone services including text messaging also stopped or became very difficult to use.[68] Specifically, all websites affiliated with the BBC were shut off.[9] Associated Press labeled the actions "ominous measures apparently seeking to undercut liberal voices".[12]

Also the night before elections text message service was down on all three cell phone operators.On the saturday morning it was announced that they were facing technical difficulties.At saturday night whole cell phone services went down.

Also internet has been extremely slow in the past few days in Iran. Social sites like Facebook, Twitter and Friendfeed are all filtered. Persian reformist news sites like www.ghalamnews.ir, www.kalemeh.ir, mowj.ir and several independent persian sites are filtered without any warning and some of them are shut down by the government.

Alleged vote rigging or coup attempt

In an interview taken when only the votes from the villages and small cities of the country had been announced, Mohsen Makhmalbaf, official speaker for the Mir-Hossein Mousavi campaign, said he was told that there was to be a coup on Saturday.[69] The New York Times quoted an employee of the Interior Ministry saying that "the government had been preparing its fraud for weeks, purging anyone of doubtful loyalty and importing pliable staff members from around the country."[70]

Results

The election had seen huge candidate rallies in Iranian cities,[13] and turnout was very high with over 80 percent of the electorate reportedly voting.[71] If no candidate had received a majority of support, a run-off election would have been held on 19 June 2009.[13] At the closing of election polls, both leading candidates, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, claimed victory, with both candidates telling the press that their sources have them at 58–60% of the total vote.[72] Early reports had claimed a turnout of 32 million votes cast.[73][74] Ahmadinejad's rival, Mousavi, warned the Iranian people of possible vote fraud.[75][76]

According to Reuters, several noted political analysts contested the results immediately.[11] Mousavi announced on his website that he in fact was the person that received the majority of the voting and that his name was replaced by Ahmadinejad's.[77] He urged his supporters to reject what he saw as "blatant violations" of democracy and its replacement by "the rule of authoritarianism and tyranny." He declared on Friday:

"The results announced for the 10th presidential elections are astonishing. People who stood in long lines and knew well who they voted for were utterly surprised by the magicians working at the television and radio broadcasting". [71]

Template:Iranian presidential election, 2009

Details

Distribution of votes between the two major candidates as the results came in (in millions). The data shows an R-squared value of .998.[78]

According to Juan Cole, President of the Global Americana Institute, there were several anomalies in the election results. It was reported that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%, which is the capital of Mousavi's home province, Azerbaijan. Ahmadinejad also won Tehran by over 50%, even though his popularity in larger cities is considered to be low. Meanwhile Karoubi, who received less than one percent of the votes, got 17 percent in the first round of the 2005 presidential elections.[79] Also Karoubi lost his own province of birth, even though Iranian voting traditionally follow ethnic lines closely.[78]

Another inconsistency has been alleged in the way the results were reported. Six sets of data released by the Interior Ministry show an almost perfectly linear progression of the distribution of votes between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, which has been seen as a statistical impossibility.[78][80] Statistician Nate Silver, however, has compared the data to those of the 2008 United States presidential election and concluded that this data set cannot be used as evidence of a flawed election– without thereby making any judgement on whether the election was rigged or not.[81]

Abbas Barzegar, reporting for The Guardian, has described the Western reaction to the election results as evidence of wishful thinking. Western journalists, Barzegar argues, have been reporting primarily from the wealthier areas of the greater cities, ignoring the wide support Ahmadinejad enjoys in poor and rural communities.[82] Juan Cole, on the other hand, rejects this interpretation. According to Cole, this analysis ignores the social development that has taken place in Iran over the last decade, and the fact that the concern of the electorate today is "about culture wars, not class."[83]

Aftermath

Main article: 2009 Iranian Election Protests

According to a report by an unofficial source, candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was arrested following his defeat en route to the home of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.[84] Independent journalist Michael Totten has questioned the authenticity of this story.[85] Other anonymous sources said that the police stormed the headquarters of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and arrested a number of people.[12][86]

Protests

Protests against the election results on the streets of Tehran.

Clashes broke out between police and groups protesting the election results from early morning on Saturday onward. Initially, the protests were largely peaceful. However, as time passed, they became increasingly violent. Some protesters began to get violent after the results of the election were announced. Angry crowds in Tehran broke into shops, tore down signs and smashed windows.[71] The worst civil unrest in Iran for over a decade took place as protesters set fire to tires outside the Interior Ministry building and others formed a human chain of around 300 people to close off a major Tehran street. Reporters from the Italian public television broadcaster RAI stated that one of its interpreters was beaten with clubs by riot police and the officers then confiscated the cameraman's tapes.[12]

File:Iranian presidential election, 2009, protests (1).jpg
Protests against the election results on the streets of Tehran.

Al Jazeera English has described the situation as the "biggest unrest since the 1979 revolution." It also reported that protests seemed spontaneous without any formal organization.[68] Two hundred people protested outside Iran's embassy in London on 13 June.[87] Ynet has stated that "tens of thousands" protested on 13 June.[88] Demonstrators are chanting phrases such as "Down with the dictator", "Death to the dictator", and "Give us our votes back".[9][88] Mousavi has urged for calm and asked that his supporters refrain from acts of violence.[9]

Ynet reported on 14 June that two people had died in the rioting so far.[88]

On June 14, protests had been organized in front of the Iranian embassies in Paris[89], Berlin[90], London[91] and Sydney.

Iranian reactions

Mousavi issued a statement saying, "I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation." Protests in favor of Mousavi against the alleged fraud broke out in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad, labeling a victory by him as a "divine assessment."[12] Iranian Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli has said that he has not received any "written complaint" about election fraud or irregularities. He has also remarked that the vote proceeded in a way that "ruled out the possibility of cheating."[2]

On 13 June, President Ahmadinejad in a live address on state run television, called the election "completely free" and the outcome "a great victory" for Iran. He also said, "[t]oday, the people of Iran have inspired other nations and disappointed their ill-wishers... propaganda facilities outside Iran and sometimes inside Iran were totally mobilized against our people." Ahmadinejad praised the country’s youth as well, but made no direct mention of the protests.[68]

Hadi Ghaemi, spokesman for the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, denounced the outcome. He also compared the government's post-election activities to those of the Chinese government during the Tiananmen Square protests.[12] Al Jazeera English has leveled allegations of direct media censorship by the Iranian government, stating that "some of the newspapers have been given notices to change their editorials or their main headlines."[4]

International reactions

  • Canada Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon said that his country was "deeply concerned" by reports of election irregularities.[12]
  • Syria Ahmadinejad's official victory was hailed by Syria, which maintains close relations with Iran.[92]
  • The Hamas government in Gaza also hailed Ahmadinejad's election victory.[93]
  • United States On 13 June, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs stated "Like the rest of the world, we were impressed by the vigorous debate and enthusiasm that this election generated, particularly among young Iranians. We continue to monitor the entire situation closely, including reports of irregularities".[94] On 12 June—prior to the declaration of the winner—President Obama reacting to a question on the elections stated "We are excited to see what appears to be a robust debate taking place in Iran".[95]
  • Venezuela The Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, phoned Ahmadinejad to congratulate his "great and important victory for people fighting for a better world".[96]
  • Israel Israel's deputy foreign ministry spokesman, Danny Ayalon, said: "With the results of the election in Iran, the international community must stop a nuclear Iran and Iranian terror immediately. If there was a shadow of a hope for change in Iran, the renewed choice of Ahmadinejad expresses more than anything the growing Iranian threat."[10]
  • France French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner express his worries with the election results. He also told that it "was the opportunity for Ahmadinejad to open discussions" but instead, they used brutality.[97]

Analysts and reporters cited by media agencies such as the Fox News Channel,[8] BBC News,[9] The Daily Telegraph,[10] The New York Times,[98] and Reuters,[11] have expressed doubts about the result of the election. Al Jazeera English[4] also reported that the Moussavi alleged voter fraud amid other allegations. Former American President Jimmy Carter said after the vote that "I think this election has bought out a lot of opposition to his policies in Iran, and I'm sure he'll listen to those opinions and hopefully moderate his position". Conservative political figure Richard Perle remarked that the results "were not a surprise".[10]

References

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External links

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