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{{Distinguish|Rasmussen Report}}
{{Self-published|date=July 2010}}
{{Self-published|date=July 2010}}
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'''Rasmussen Reports''' is an [[United States|American]] public opinion [[opinion poll|polling]] firm. Founded by pollster [[Scott Rasmussen]], co-founder of [[ESPN]], the company updates its President's job approval rating and other indexes daily, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.


==History of Rasmussen Reports==
{{distinguish|Rasmussen Report}}
⚫
'''Rasmussen Reports''' is an [[United States|American]] public opinion [[opinion poll|polling]] firm. Founded by pollster [[Scott Rasmussen]], the company updates daily indexes including the President's job approval rating, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.
⚫
In 1995, Scott Rasmussen founded a polling company called GrassRoots Research. In 1999, his company Rasmussen Research was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares.<ref>[http://www.secinfo.com/dRQ1j.5p.htm Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999]</ref>


==History==
As of 2010, Rasmussen is the President of Rasmussen Reports (based in [[Asbury Park, New Jersey]] <ref>http://www.asburypark.net/</ref> and founded in 2003) and describes himself as having been a market driven public opinion pollster for more than a decade.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us "About Us", ''Rasmussen Reports'' (accessed September 7, 2008)]</ref> In addition to political polling, Rasmussen provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.
⚫
Scott Rasmussen founded the polling company, GrassRoots Research, in 1995. His company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares in 1999.<ref>[http://www.secinfo.com/dRQ1j.5p.htm Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999]</ref> In 2003, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Reports, based in [[Asbury Park, New Jersey]]; He is currently the president of the company.


Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/07/parsing_the_polls_of_auto_dial.html | work=The Washington Post}}</ref> Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the [[Fox News Channel]], the [[BBC]], [[CNN]], [[NPR]], and [[CNBC]].
Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/07/parsing_the_polls_of_auto_dial.html | work=The Washington Post}}</ref> In addition to political polling, Rasmussen provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues. He describes himself as a market driven public opinion pollster.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us "About Us", ''Rasmussen Reports'' (accessed September 7, 2008)]</ref>


==Use==
⚫
A [[Fordham University]] analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election.<ref name="fordham.edu">http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf</ref> The Fordham analysis is a preliminary analysis based on projected vote totals. The final vote margin of victory was 7.2 points compared to the 6.15 used in the Fordham analysis.<ref name="fordham.edu"/><ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008</ref>
⚫
Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the [[Fox News Channel]], the [[BBC]], [[CNN]], [[NPR]], and [[CNBC]]. However, [[MSNBC]] does not use Rasmussen polls.<ref>Why MSNBC doesn't use Rasmussen, [http://mediamatters.org/blog/200905150005], Media Matters Blog</ref> Conversely, [[conservative]] [[News media|media]] frequently refers to Rasmussen, praising them for being the first to ask about a relevant issue or to ask questions that other pollsters do not.<ref>Rasmussen: 40% of likely GOP voters say Palin hurt her chances, [http://hotair.com/archives/2009/07/07/rasmussen-40-of-likely-gop-voters-say-palin-hurt-her-chances/], Ed Morrisey, Hotair.com</ref><ref>Rasmussen Polling On The Issues: What A Difference A Year Makes!, [http://www.rightwingnews.com/mt331/2009/06/rasmussen_polling_on_the_issue.php] Right Wing News.com</ref> Rasmussen Reports has performed [[opinion poll|polling]] for liberal organizations. For example, the anti-war organization [[After Downing Street]] commissioned a Rasmussen poll on support, or lack thereof, for the impeachment of President Bush.<ref>Rasmussem Reports, [http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Impeachment.htm] Dec 15, 2005</ref>


==Ranking==
Reports by ''[[Slate (magazine)|Slate Magazine]]'' and ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 United States presidential election]] and [[United States general elections, 2006|2006 United States general elections]].<ref>David Kenner and William Saletan, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/ Let's Go to the Audiotape], ''Slate'', December 9, 2004</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Carl |last=[[Carl Bialik|Bialik]] |title=Grading the Pollsters |url=http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116360961928023945-NgMgbTwNTEbcTx_C47luM8eH8lM_20071115.html |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |publisher=[[Dow Jones]] |date=2006-11-16 |accessdate=2007-11-01 }}</ref>
⚫
A [[Fordham University]] analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election.<ref name="fordham.edu">http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf</ref>{{Verify credibility}} The Fordham analysis is a preliminary analysis based on projected vote totals. The final vote margin of victory was 7.2 points compared to the 6.15 used in the Fordham analysis.<ref name="fordham.edu"/><ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008</ref> Reports by ''[[Slate (magazine)|Slate Magazine]]'' and ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 United States presidential election]] and [[United States general elections, 2006|2006 United States general elections]].<ref>David Kenner and William Saletan, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/ Let's Go to the Audiotape], ''Slate'', December 9, 2004</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Carl |last=[[Carl Bialik|Bialik]] |title=Grading the Pollsters |url=http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116360961928023945-NgMgbTwNTEbcTx_C47luM8eH8lM_20071115.html |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |publisher=[[Dow Jones]] |date=2006-11-16 |accessdate=2007-11-01 }}</ref>


⚫
Near the end of the 2008 Presidential Election, progressive statistician [[Nate Silver]] of [[FiveThirtyEight.com]] analyzed the eight national presidential tracking polls. Silver concluded that while none were perfect, "Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."<ref>FiveThirtyEight.com, [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html], December 21, 2008</ref> By 2010, however, Silver's view of Rasmussen had changed. In an analysis posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on April 17, 2010, Silver concluded that since the end of the 2008 election cycle, Rasmussen's "house effect" was skewing its polling numbers and that "to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong." Silver also disputed Rasmussen's suggestion that difference between his results and those of other polls can be explained by Rasmussen polling only "likely voters" rather than all adults.<ref>[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect"], by Nate Silver, [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], April 17, 2010</ref>
== Reputation ==

== Political spectrum ==
{{POV-section|date=July 2010}}
{{POV-section|date=July 2010}}
[[TIME]] has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group".<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946082-3,00.html | work=Time | title=Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown? | date=December 7, 2009 | accessdate=May 22, 2010}}</ref>
[[TIME]] has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group".<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946082-3,00.html | work=Time | title=Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown? | date=December 7, 2009 | accessdate=May 22, 2010}}</ref>
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Josh Marshall of [[Talking Points Memo]] commented on their reliability in a February 2009 article:<ref>Dangerous Brew, [http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/dangerous_brew.php], Talking Points Memo</ref><ref>Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording, [http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/02/scott_rasmussens_conservative_friendly_question_wording.php], February 24, 2009</ref>
Josh Marshall of [[Talking Points Memo]] commented on their reliability in a February 2009 article:<ref>Dangerous Brew, [http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/dangerous_brew.php], Talking Points Memo</ref><ref>Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording, [http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/02/scott_rasmussens_conservative_friendly_question_wording.php], February 24, 2009</ref>


{{Quotation|The toplines tend to be a bit toward the Republican side of the spectrum, compared to the average of other polls. But if you factor that in they're pretty reliable. And the frequency that Rasmussen is able to turn them around -- because they're based on robocalls -- gives them added value in terms of teasing out trends. But the qualitative questions, in terms of their phrasing and so forth, are frequently skewed to give answers friendly toward GOP or conservative viewpoints. All of which is to say that his numbers are valuable. But they need to be read with that bias in mind.}}
<blockquote>The toplines tend to be a bit toward the Republican side of the spectrum, compared to the average of other polls. But if you factor that in they're pretty reliable. And the frequency that Rasmussen is able to turn them around -- because they're based on robocalls -- gives them added value in terms of teasing out trends. But the qualitative questions, in terms of their phrasing and so forth, are frequently skewed to give answers friendly toward GOP or conservative viewpoints. All of which is to say that his numbers are valuable. But they need to be read with that bias in mind.
</blockquote>


Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.<ref>Rasmussen's Polling Stirs Bias Debate, [http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/04/rasmussens-polling-stirs-bias-debate/], January 4, 2010</ref> Examples of Rasmussen's questions with wording issues include:
Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.<ref>Rasmussen's Polling Stirs Bias Debate, [http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/04/rasmussens-polling-stirs-bias-debate/], January 4, 2010</ref> Examples of Rasmussen's questions with wording issues include:
Line 33: Line 37:


In 2004 ''[[Slate magazine]]'' "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.<ref>Slate, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860] Dec 9, 2004</ref>
In 2004 ''[[Slate magazine]]'' "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.<ref>Slate, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860] Dec 9, 2004</ref>
Near the end of the 2008 Presidential Election, progressive statistician [[Nate Silver]] of [[FiveThirtyEight.com]] analyzed the eight national presidential tracking polls. Silver concluded that while none were perfect, "Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."<ref>FiveThirtyEight.com, [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html], December 21, 2008</ref>

⚫
By 2010, however, Silver's view of Rasmussen had changed. In an analysis posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on April 17, 2010, Silver concluded that since the end of the 2008 election cycle, Rasmussen's "house effect" was skewing its polling numbers and that "to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong." Silver also disputed Rasmussen's suggestion that difference between his results and those of other polls can be explained by Rasmussen polling only "likely voters" rather than all adults.<ref>[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect"], by Nate Silver, [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], April 17, 2010</ref>

⚫
[[MSNBC]] does not use Rasmussen polls.<ref>Why MSNBC doesn't use Rasmussen, [http://mediamatters.org/blog/200905150005], Media Matters Blog</ref> Conversely, [[conservative]] [[News media|media]] frequently refers to Rasmussen, praising them for being the first to ask about a relevant issue or to ask questions that other pollsters do not.<ref>Rasmussen: 40% of likely GOP voters say Palin hurt her chances, [http://hotair.com/archives/2009/07/07/rasmussen-40-of-likely-gop-voters-say-palin-hurt-her-chances/], Ed Morrisey, Hotair.com</ref><ref>Rasmussen Polling On The Issues: What A Difference A Year Makes!, [http://www.rightwingnews.com/mt331/2009/06/rasmussen_polling_on_the_issue.php] Right Wing News.com</ref> Rasmussen Reports has performed [[opinion poll|polling]] for liberal organizations. For example, the anti-war organization [[After Downing Street]] commissioned a Rasmussen poll on support, or lack thereof, for the impeachment of President Bush.<ref>Rasmussem Reports, [http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Impeachment.htm] Dec 15, 2005</ref>


== References ==
== References ==
{{Reflist}}
{{reflist|2}}


==External links==
==External links==

Revision as of 03:09, 19 July 2010

Not to be confused with Rasmussen Report.

Rasmussen Reports is an American public opinion polling firm. Founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen, the company updates daily indexes including the President's job approval rating, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.

History

Scott Rasmussen founded the polling company, GrassRoots Research, in 1995. His company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares in 1999.[1] In 2003, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Reports, based in Asbury Park, New Jersey; He is currently the president of the company.

Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.[2] These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques.[3] In addition to political polling, Rasmussen provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues. He describes himself as a market driven public opinion pollster.[4]

Use

Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the Fox News Channel, the BBC, CNN, NPR, and CNBC. However, MSNBC does not use Rasmussen polls.[5] Conversely, conservative media frequently refers to Rasmussen, praising them for being the first to ask about a relevant issue or to ask questions that other pollsters do not.[6][7] Rasmussen Reports has performed polling for liberal organizations. For example, the anti-war organization After Downing Street commissioned a Rasmussen poll on support, or lack thereof, for the impeachment of President Bush.[8]

Ranking

A Fordham University analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election.[9][unreliable source?] The Fordham analysis is a preliminary analysis based on projected vote totals. The final vote margin of victory was 7.2 points compared to the 6.15 used in the Fordham analysis.[9][10] Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[11][12]

Near the end of the 2008 Presidential Election, progressive statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com analyzed the eight national presidential tracking polls. Silver concluded that while none were perfect, "Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."[13] By 2010, however, Silver's view of Rasmussen had changed. In an analysis posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on April 17, 2010, Silver concluded that since the end of the 2008 election cycle, Rasmussen's "house effect" was skewing its polling numbers and that "to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong." Silver also disputed Rasmussen's suggestion that difference between his results and those of other polls can be explained by Rasmussen polling only "likely voters" rather than all adults.[14]

Political spectrum

TIME has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group".[15] The Center For Public Integrity has pointed out that Scott Rasmussen was a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign.[16] According to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com, while there are no apparent records of Scott Rasmussen or Rasmussen Reports making contributions to political candidates and its public election polls are generally regarded as reliable, "some observers have questioned its issue-based polling, which frequently tends to elicit responses that are more conservative than those found on other national surveys."[17].

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo commented on their reliability in a February 2009 article:[18][19]

The toplines tend to be a bit toward the Republican side of the spectrum, compared to the average of other polls. But if you factor that in they're pretty reliable. And the frequency that Rasmussen is able to turn them around -- because they're based on robocalls -- gives them added value in terms of teasing out trends. But the qualitative questions, in terms of their phrasing and so forth, are frequently skewed to give answers friendly toward GOP or conservative viewpoints. All of which is to say that his numbers are valuable. But they need to be read with that bias in mind.

Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.[20] Examples of Rasmussen's questions with wording issues include:

  • Agree or Disagree: "Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party. He says jump, and they say how high."[21]
  • Do you favor or oppose the economic recovery package proposed by Barack Obama and the Congressional Democrats?[22]
  • Suppose that Democrats agreed on a health care reform bill that is opposed by all Republicans in Congress. Should the Democrats pass that bill or should they change the bill to win support from a reasonable number of Republicans?[23]
  • Do you agree or disagree with the following statement... it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money?[23]

Some of Rasmussen polls have contained two different weights for questions, depending on the party of the statesman in the question.[24] In one example, the first question asks for a job rating for Tim Pawlenty, a Republican governor, using an approve/disapprove scale. The next question asks for the way that Al Franken, a Democratic senator, is performing his role, but uses a Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor scale. Nick Panagakis of Pollster.com has pointed out that, when using the latter scale, "approval is often reported by combining the top two and bottom two scores", including the "fair" score as a "disapproval" vote.[25]

In 2004 Slate magazine "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.[26]

References

  1. ^ Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999
  2. ^ Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election
  3. ^ The Washington Post http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/07/parsing_the_polls_of_auto_dial.html. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  4. ^ "About Us", Rasmussen Reports (accessed September 7, 2008)
  5. ^ Why MSNBC doesn't use Rasmussen, [1], Media Matters Blog
  6. ^ Rasmussen: 40% of likely GOP voters say Palin hurt her chances, [2], Ed Morrisey, Hotair.com
  7. ^ Rasmussen Polling On The Issues: What A Difference A Year Makes!, [3] Right Wing News.com
  8. ^ Rasmussem Reports, [4] Dec 15, 2005
  9. ^ a b http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
  10. ^ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
  11. ^ David Kenner and William Saletan, Let's Go to the Audiotape, Slate, December 9, 2004
  12. ^ Bialik, Carl (2006-11-16). "Grading the Pollsters". The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones. Retrieved 2007-11-01.
  13. ^ FiveThirtyEight.com, [5], December 21, 2008
  14. ^ Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect", by Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com, April 17, 2010
  15. ^ "Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown?". Time. December 7, 2009. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  16. ^ Campaign Consultants, [6], Center For Public Integrity, 2003-2004
  17. ^ FiveThirtyEight.com, [7] June 6, 2009
  18. ^ Dangerous Brew, [8], Talking Points Memo
  19. ^ Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording, [9], February 24, 2009
  20. ^ Rasmussen's Polling Stirs Bias Debate, [10], January 4, 2010
  21. ^ Just 11% of Republicans Say Limbaugh Is Their Party’s Leader, [11], March 4, 2009
  22. ^ Support for Stimulus Package Falls to 37%, [12], February 4, 2009
  23. ^ a b Rasmussen Caught With Their Thumb On The Scale, [13], August 29, 2009
  24. ^ Why is Rasmussen Skewing Pawlenty's Numbers?, [14], September 22, 2009
  25. ^ Comparing Job Approval Measures, [15], October 29, 2008
  26. ^ Slate, [16] Dec 9, 2004

External links

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