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{{Distinguish|Rasmussen Report}}
{{Self-published|date=July 2010}}
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'''Rasmussen Reports''' is an [[United States|American]] public opinion [[opinion poll|polling]] firm. Founded by pollster [[Scott Rasmussen]], a co-founder of [[ESPN]], the company updates its President's job approval rating and other indexes daily, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.

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{{distinguish|Rasmussen Report}}
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'''Rasmussen Reports''' is an [[United States|American]] public opinion [[opinion poll|polling]] firm. Founded by pollster [[Scott Rasmussen]], the company updates daily indexes including the President's job approval rating, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.


==History==
==History==
Scott Rasmussen founded the polling company, GrassRoots Research, in 1995. His company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares in 1999.<ref>[http://www.secinfo.com/dRQ1j.5p.htm Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999]</ref> In 2003, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Reports, based in [[Asbury Park, New Jersey]]; He is currently the president of the company.
Scott Rasmussen was a co-founder of ESPN<ref name="WaPoJune2010">[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/16/AR2010061605090.html Pollster Scott Rasmussen's numbers are firing up Republicans and Democrats], ''Washington Post'', 17 June 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010</ref>. He was involved in a number of outfits, including being President of Grassroots Research in the mid-1990s.<ref>[http://reason.com/archives/1996/03/01/retirement-plans Retirement Plans], ''Reason Magazine'', March 1996. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref> In 1999, his company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares,<ref>[http://www.secinfo.com/dRQ1j.5p.htm Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999]</ref> where Rasmussen continued polling under the TownPagesNet.com umbrella with Portrait of America polling.<ref>[http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2000_March_14/ai_60084288/ Rasmussen Research named most accurate in primary polling], ''Business Wire'', 14 March 2000. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref> Rasmussen later founded Rasmussen Reports in 2003, where the firm continues to do polling for politics and public opinion, as well as provide analysis and commentary.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us "About Us"], Rasmussen Reports, URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref>

Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, operator-assisted polling techniques.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/07/parsing_the_polls_of_auto_dial.html | work=The Washington Post}}</ref> In addition to political polling, Rasmussen provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues. He describes himself as a market driven public opinion pollster.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us "About Us", ''Rasmussen Reports'' (accessed September 7, 2008)]</ref>

==Use==
Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the [[Fox News Channel]], the [[BBC]], [[CNN]], [[NPR]], and [[CNBC]]. However, [[MSNBC]] does not use Rasmussen polls.<ref>Why MSNBC doesn't use Rasmussen, [http://mediamatters.org/blog/200905150005], Media Matters Blog</ref> Conversely, [[conservative]] [[News media|media]] frequently refers to Rasmussen, praising them for being the first to ask about a relevant issue or to ask questions that other pollsters do not.<ref>Rasmussen: 40% of likely GOP voters say Palin hurt her chances, [http://hotair.com/archives/2009/07/07/rasmussen-40-of-likely-gop-voters-say-palin-hurt-her-chances/], Ed Morrisey, Hotair.com</ref><ref>Rasmussen Polling On The Issues: What A Difference A Year Makes!, [http://www.rightwingnews.com/mt331/2009/06/rasmussen_polling_on_the_issue.php] Right Wing News.com</ref> Rasmussen Reports has performed [[opinion poll|polling]] for liberal organizations. For example, the anti-war organization [[After Downing Street]] commissioned a Rasmussen poll on support, or lack thereof, for the impeachment of President Bush.<ref>Rasmussem Reports, [http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Impeachment.htm] Dec 15, 2005</ref>

==Ranking==
A [[Fordham University]] analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election.<ref name="fordham.edu">http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf</ref>{{Verify credibility}} The Fordham analysis is a preliminary analysis based on projected vote totals. The final vote margin of victory was 7.2 points compared to the 6.15 used in the Fordham analysis.<ref name="fordham.edu"/><ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008</ref> Reports by ''[[Slate (magazine)|Slate Magazine]]'' and ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 United States presidential election]] and [[United States general elections, 2006|2006 United States general elections]].<ref>David Kenner and William Saletan, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/ Let's Go to the Audiotape], ''Slate'', December 9, 2004</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Carl |last=[[Carl Bialik|Bialik]] |title=Grading the Pollsters |url=http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116360961928023945-NgMgbTwNTEbcTx_C47luM8eH8lM_20071115.html |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |publisher=[[Dow Jones]] |date=2006-11-16 |accessdate=2007-11-01 }}</ref>

Near the end of the 2008 Presidential Election, progressive statistician [[Nate Silver]] of [[FiveThirtyEight.com]] analyzed the eight national presidential tracking polls. Silver concluded that while none were perfect, "Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."<ref>FiveThirtyEight.com, [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html], December 21, 2008</ref> By 2010, however, Silver's view of Rasmussen had changed. In an analysis posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on April 17, 2010, Silver concluded that since the end of the 2008 election cycle, Rasmussen's "house effect" was skewing its polling numbers and that "to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong." Silver also disputed Rasmussen's suggestion that difference between his results and those of other polls can be explained by Rasmussen polling only "likely voters" rather than all adults.<ref>[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect"], by Nate Silver, [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], April 17, 2010</ref>

== Political spectrum ==
{{POV-section|date=July 2010}}
[[TIME]] has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group".<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946082-3,00.html | work=Time | title=Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown? | date=December 7, 2009 | accessdate=May 22, 2010}}</ref>
The [[Center For Public Integrity]] has pointed out that Scott Rasmussen was a [[Political consulting|paid consultant]] for the 2004 [[George W. Bush]] campaign.<ref>Campaign Consultants, [http://projects.publicintegrity.org/consultants/list.aspx?act=conDetail&id=122002], Center For Public Integrity, 2003-2004</ref> According to [[Nate Silver]]'s [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], while there are no apparent records of Scott Rasmussen or Rasmussen Reports making contributions to political candidates and its public election polls are generally regarded as reliable, "some observers have questioned its issue-based polling, which frequently tends to elicit responses that are more conservative than those found on other national surveys."<ref>FiveThirtyEight.com, [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/public-support-for-public-option.html] June 6, 2009</ref>.


Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and automated surveys at a low cost.<ref name="WaPoJune2010" /> Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the [[Fox News Channel]], the [[BBC]], [[CNN]], [[NPR]], and [[CNBC]].
Josh Marshall of [[Talking Points Memo]] commented on their reliability in a February 2009 article:<ref>Dangerous Brew, [http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/dangerous_brew.php], Talking Points Memo</ref><ref>Scott Rasmussen’s Conservative-Friendly Question-Wording, [http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/02/scott_rasmussens_conservative_friendly_question_wording.php], February 24, 2009</ref>


== Reputation ==
<blockquote>The toplines tend to be a bit toward the Republican side of the spectrum, compared to the average of other polls. But if you factor that in they're pretty reliable. And the frequency that Rasmussen is able to turn them around -- because they're based on robocalls -- gives them added value in terms of teasing out trends. But the qualitative questions, in terms of their phrasing and so forth, are frequently skewed to give answers friendly toward GOP or conservative viewpoints. All of which is to say that his numbers are valuable. But they need to be read with that bias in mind.
</blockquote>


Rasmussen Reports has been among the most reliable and accurate polling companies in the United States for the last three election cycles. ''[[Slate (magazine)|Slate Magazine]]'' and ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' both found that Rasmussen Reports was among the most accurate polling firms for the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 United States presidential election]] and [[United States general elections, 2006|2006 United States general elections]].<ref>David Kenner and William Saletan, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/ Let's Go to the Audiotape], ''Slate'', December 9, 2004</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Carl |last=[[Carl Bialik|Bialik]] |title=Grading the Pollsters |url=http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116360961928023945-NgMgbTwNTEbcTx_C47luM8eH8lM_20071115.html |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |publisher=[[Dow Jones]] |date=2006-11-16 |accessdate=2007-11-01 }}</ref> A preliminary analysis from [[Fordham University]] ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election<ref name="fordham.edu">http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf</ref>, as Rasmussen's final poll showing [[Barack Obama]] winning by 6%<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2008/2008_presidential_election/how_did_we_do Rasmussen Reports]: 2008 Presidential Election: "How Did We Do?" 6 November 2008. URL accessed 5 July 2010.</ref> while the true margin was 6.6%.<ref>[http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/2008presgeresults.pdf FEC 2008 Presidential election results] URL accessed 5 July 2010.</ref><ref>[http://www.ncpp.org/files/08FNLncppNatlPolls_010809.pdf National Council on Public Polls Table of National Election Results, Preliminary 2008 Results]. More tables for the 2008 election are available [http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/114 here]. URLs accessed 16 July 2010.</ref> His polling was also cited in being among the earliest to note the increase in support for [[Scott Brown]]'s candidacy in the [[United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010|2010 special election for Senate in Massachusetts]], a poll that was noticed in the [[Presidency of Barack Obama|Obama administration]] according to unnamed sources.<ref name="WaPoJune2010" />
Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.<ref>Rasmussen's Polling Stirs Bias Debate, [http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/04/rasmussens-polling-stirs-bias-debate/], January 4, 2010</ref> Examples of Rasmussen's questions with wording issues include:


Media outlets and political pundits have described Rasmussen Reports as a conservative polling group.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946082-3,00.html | work=Time | title=Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown? | date=December 7, 2009 | accessdate=May 22, 2010}}</ref><ref name="WaPoJune2010" /> Scott Rasmussen, Inc. was a [[Political consulting|paid consultant]] for the 2004 [[George W. Bush]] campaign,<ref>[http://projects.publicintegrity.org/consultants/list.aspx?act=conDetail&id=122002 Listing for Scott Rasmussen, Inc], Center For Public Integrity, 2003-2004. URL accessed 19 July 2010.</ref> providing an interactive feature for customers to program their own polls<ref name="WaPoJune2010" /> and he wrote for [[World Net Daily]] in the early 2000s<ref name="WaPoJune2010" />. Mark Blumenthal of ''National Journal'' and Pollster.com believes that Rasmussen positions their polls "to get their results on cable news."<ref name="WaPoJune2010" /> [[Josh Marshall]] of the award-winning political analysis site [[Talking Points Memo]] noted that Rasmussen's polling was reliable, but alleged that Rasmussen asks questions that are "frequently skewed toward GOP or conservative viewpoints."<ref>[http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/dangerous_brew.ph Dangerous Brew], Talking Points Memo, 23 February 2009. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref>
*Agree or Disagree: "[[Rush Limbaugh]] is the leader of the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]]. ''He says jump, and they say how high.''"<ref>Just 11% of Republicans Say Limbaugh Is Their Party’s Leader, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2009/just_11_of_republicans_say_limbaugh_is_their_party_s_leader], March 4, 2009</ref>
*Do you favor or oppose the economic recovery package proposed by [[Barack Obama]] ''and the Congressional [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrats]]''?<ref>Support for Stimulus Package Falls to 37%, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/economic_stimulus_package/february_2009/support_for_stimulus_package_falls_to_37], February 4, 2009</ref>
*Suppose that Democrats agreed on a health care reform bill that is opposed by all Republicans in Congress. Should the Democrats pass that bill or should they change the bill to win support from a ''reasonable number'' of Republicans?<ref name="dailykos.com">Rasmussen Caught With Their Thumb On The Scale, [http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/27/773158/-Rasmussen-Caught-With-Their-Thumb-On-The-Scale], August 29, 2009</ref>
*Do you agree or disagree with the following statement... it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending ''because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money''?<ref name="dailykos.com"/>


Rasmussen has also been criticized for the use of recorded automated calling. In 2004 ''Slate'' "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls, although admitted Rasmussen's success following the election.<ref>[http://www.slate.com/id/2110860 Let's Go to the Audiotape: Who nailed the election results? Automated pollsters]. ''Slate'', 9 December 2004. URL accessed 19 July 2010.</ref> Following a poll in May, [[South Carolina]] gubernatorial candidate [[Henry McMaster]] released a statement deriding Rasmussen for using "robo-calls," falsely claiming that Rasmussen's results in previous elections were "less reliable."<ref>[http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-now/2010/05/candidates_kos_go_after_rasmus.html Candidates, Kos go after Rasmussen], ''Washington Post'', 24 May 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref>
Some of Rasmussen polls have contained two different weights for questions, depending on the party of the statesman in the question.<ref>Why is Rasmussen Skewing Pawlenty's Numbers?, [http://mydd.com/2009/9/22/why-is-rasmussen-skewing-pawlentys-numbers], September 22, 2009</ref> In one example, the first question asks for a job rating for [[Tim Pawlenty]], a Republican governor, using an approve/disapprove scale. The next question asks for the way that [[Al Franken]], a Democratic senator, is performing his role, but uses a Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor scale. [[Nick Panagakis]] of [[Pollster.com]] has pointed out that, when using the latter scale, "approval is often reported by combining the top two and bottom two scores", including the "fair" score as a "disapproval" vote.<ref>Comparing Job Approval Measures, [http://www.pollster.com/blogs/panagakis_comparing_job_approv.php], October 29, 2008</ref>


According to Norah O'Donnell on an [[MSNBC]] broadcast, the network does not use Rasmussen polls,<ref>MSNBC broadcast, 14 May 2009.</ref> although many outlets including [[Fox News]],<ref>[http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2008/09/29/fox_newsrasmussen_swing_state/ Fox News/Rasmussen Swing State Polls]: Real Clear Politics, 28 September 2008. URL accessed 16 July 2010.</ref> ''[[U.S. News and World Reports]]''<ref>[http://politics.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2010/07/01/poll-gulf-oil-spill-hurts-obamas-image.html Poll: Gulf Oil Spill Hurts Obama's Image], ''U.S. News and World Reports'', 1 July 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref> and the ''[[Wall Street Journal]]''<ref>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704122904575314822027355644.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines Anybody But Rubio?], ''Wall Street Journal'', 18 June 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.</ref> continue to do so.
In 2004 ''[[Slate magazine]]'' "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.<ref>Slate, [http://www.slate.com/id/2110860] Dec 9, 2004</ref>


== References ==
== References ==
{{reflist|2}}
{{Reflist|2}}


==External links==
==External links==

Revision as of 15:56, 19 July 2010

Not to be confused with Rasmussen Report.

Rasmussen Reports is an American public opinion polling firm. Founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen, a co-founder of ESPN, the company updates its President's job approval rating and other indexes daily, and provides public opinion data, analysis, and commentary, along with coverage of business, economic, and lifestyle issues.

History

Scott Rasmussen was a co-founder of ESPN[1]. He was involved in a number of outfits, including being President of Grassroots Research in the mid-1990s.[2] In 1999, his company, Rasmussen Research, was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares,[3] where Rasmussen continued polling under the TownPagesNet.com umbrella with Portrait of America polling.[4] Rasmussen later founded Rasmussen Reports in 2003, where the firm continues to do polling for politics and public opinion, as well as provide analysis and commentary.[5]

Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and automated surveys at a low cost.[1] Polls by Rasmussen Reports are cited regularly by multiple major news sources, and Rasmussen has appeared as a guest analyst on a number of news broadcasts, including the Fox News Channel, the BBC, CNN, NPR, and CNBC.

Reputation

Rasmussen Reports has been among the most reliable and accurate polling companies in the United States for the last three election cycles. Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal both found that Rasmussen Reports was among the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[6][7] A preliminary analysis from Fordham University ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the two most accurate polling firms in the 2008 Election[8], as Rasmussen's final poll showing Barack Obama winning by 6%[9] while the true margin was 6.6%.[10][11] His polling was also cited in being among the earliest to note the increase in support for Scott Brown's candidacy in the 2010 special election for Senate in Massachusetts, a poll that was noticed in the Obama administration according to unnamed sources.[1]

Media outlets and political pundits have described Rasmussen Reports as a conservative polling group.[12][1] Scott Rasmussen, Inc. was a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign,[13] providing an interactive feature for customers to program their own polls[1] and he wrote for World Net Daily in the early 2000s[1]. Mark Blumenthal of National Journal and Pollster.com believes that Rasmussen positions their polls "to get their results on cable news."[1] Josh Marshall of the award-winning political analysis site Talking Points Memo noted that Rasmussen's polling was reliable, but alleged that Rasmussen asks questions that are "frequently skewed toward GOP or conservative viewpoints."[14]

Rasmussen has also been criticized for the use of recorded automated calling. In 2004 Slate "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls, although admitted Rasmussen's success following the election.[15] Following a poll in May, South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Henry McMaster released a statement deriding Rasmussen for using "robo-calls," falsely claiming that Rasmussen's results in previous elections were "less reliable."[16]

According to Norah O'Donnell on an MSNBC broadcast, the network does not use Rasmussen polls,[17] although many outlets including Fox News,[18] U.S. News and World Reports[19] and the Wall Street Journal[20] continue to do so.

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Pollster Scott Rasmussen's numbers are firing up Republicans and Democrats, Washington Post, 17 June 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010
  2. ^ Retirement Plans, Reason Magazine, March 1996. URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  3. ^ Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 6-K, December 1999
  4. ^ Rasmussen Research named most accurate in primary polling, Business Wire, 14 March 2000. URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  5. ^ "About Us", Rasmussen Reports, URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  6. ^ David Kenner and William Saletan, Let's Go to the Audiotape, Slate, December 9, 2004
  7. ^ Bialik, Carl (2006-11-16). "Grading the Pollsters". The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones. Retrieved 2007-11-01.
  8. ^ http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
  9. ^ Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Presidential Election: "How Did We Do?" 6 November 2008. URL accessed 5 July 2010.
  10. ^ FEC 2008 Presidential election results URL accessed 5 July 2010.
  11. ^ National Council on Public Polls Table of National Election Results, Preliminary 2008 Results. More tables for the 2008 election are available here. URLs accessed 16 July 2010.
  12. ^ "Has 'Climategate' Been Overblown?". Time. December 7, 2009. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  13. ^ Listing for Scott Rasmussen, Inc, Center For Public Integrity, 2003-2004. URL accessed 19 July 2010.
  14. ^ Dangerous Brew, Talking Points Memo, 23 February 2009. URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  15. ^ Let's Go to the Audiotape: Who nailed the election results? Automated pollsters. Slate, 9 December 2004. URL accessed 19 July 2010.
  16. ^ Candidates, Kos go after Rasmussen, Washington Post, 24 May 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  17. ^ MSNBC broadcast, 14 May 2009.
  18. ^ Fox News/Rasmussen Swing State Polls: Real Clear Politics, 28 September 2008. URL accessed 16 July 2010.
  19. ^ Poll: Gulf Oil Spill Hurts Obama's Image, U.S. News and World Reports, 1 July 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.
  20. ^ Anybody But Rubio?, Wall Street Journal, 18 June 2010. URL accessed 1 July 2010.

External links

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