Talk:Great Filter: Difference between revisions

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→‎This idea is based on a false assumption: No, argument is *based* on lack of evidence from conventional astronomy
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:::::<blockquote>The '''Great Filter''' is an implication of the failure to find any [[extraterrestrial civilization]]s in the observable universe, {{highlight|despite hundreds of years of increasingly sophisticated [[astronomy]] and dedicated [[SETI|searches for extraterrestrial intelligence]].}}</blockquote>
:::::<blockquote>The '''Great Filter''' is an implication of the failure to find any [[extraterrestrial civilization]]s in the observable universe, {{highlight|despite hundreds of years of increasingly sophisticated [[astronomy]] and dedicated [[SETI|searches for extraterrestrial intelligence]].}}</blockquote>
:::::There is no "despite" here, and there has not been "hundreds of years" of astronomical observation or greatly funded searches for ET intelligence that amount to anything more than picking up a pile of sand on a large beach and letting it sift through your hands. Please provide sources if you would like to keep adding this statement. I have not found a Great Filter argument that states this, as it is false. [[User:Viriditas|Viriditas]] ([[User talk:Viriditas|talk]]) 02:09, 24 January 2010 (UTC)
:::::There is no "despite" here, and there has not been "hundreds of years" of astronomical observation or greatly funded searches for ET intelligence that amount to anything more than picking up a pile of sand on a large beach and letting it sift through your hands. Please provide sources if you would like to keep adding this statement. I have not found a Great Filter argument that states this, as it is false. [[User:Viriditas|Viriditas]] ([[User talk:Viriditas|talk]]) 02:09, 24 January 2010 (UTC)
::::::Let's look at statements in the "Great Filter" article itself:
::::::"Finally, we expect advanced life to substantially disturb the places it colonizes. Whenever natural systems are not ideally structured to support colonists, we expect changes to be made. And unless ideal structures always either closely mimic natural appearances or are effectively invisible, we expect advanced life to make visible changes."
:::::::And how would we see these changes? By conventional astronomy...
::::::"For example, it only takes a small amount of nuclear waste dropped into to visibly change its spectra [Whitmire & Wright 80.] And a civilization might convert enough of a star's asteroids into orbiting solar-energy collectors to collect a substantial fraction of this star's output, thereby substantially changing the star's spectral, temporal, and spatial appearances. Even more advanced colonists may disassemble stars [Criswell 85] or enclose them in Dyson spheres well within a million years of arrival. Galaxies may even be restructured wholesale [Dyson 66]."
::::::"If such advanced life had substantially colonized our planet, we would know it by now. We would also know it if they had restructured most of our solar system's asteroid belt (though much smaller colonies could be hard to detect [Papagiannis 78]).:
:::::::And how would we know this? Conventional astronomy
::::::"And they certainly haven't disassembled Jupiter or our sun."
:::::::Conventional astronomy
::::::"We should even know it if they had aggressively colonized most of the nearby stars, but left us as a "nature preserve"."
:::::::Conventional astronomy
::::::"Our planet and solar system, however, don't look substantially colonized by advanced competitive life from the stars, and neither does anything else we see."
:::::::Conventional astronomy
::::::"To the contrary, we have had great success at explaining the behavior of our planet and solar system, nearby stars, our galaxy, and even other galaxies, via simple "dead" physical processes, rather than the complex purposeful processes of advanced life."
:::::::Conventional astronomy
::::::"Given how similar our galaxy looks to nearby galaxies, it would even be hard to see how our whole galaxy could be a "nature preserve" among substantially-restructured galaxies."
:::::::And yet again
::::::"These considerations strongly suggest that no civilization in our past universe has reached such an "explosive" point, to become the source of a light speed expansion of thorough colonization."
:::::::These are ALL based on conventional astronomy, except for the one mention that Earth does not appear to have been colonized.
:::::In short, this is *Directly* supported by the referenced article. [[User:LouScheffer|LouScheffer]] ([[User talk:LouScheffer|talk]]) 15:59, 24 January 2010 (UTC)

Revision as of 15:59, 24 January 2010

This page was the subject of a VfD debate on April 16, 2005. The decision was to merge and redirect to/with Fermi Paradox. See Wikipedia:Votes for deletion/The Great Filter for discussion. Mackensen (talk) 05:18, 30 Apr 2005 (UTC)

new merge proposal

I am suggesting this page be merged with Rare Earth hypothesis J8079s (talk) 22:35, 21 April 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This idea is based on a false assumption

This page should not be in Wikipedia. Taking a fact that "We have not yet observed evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life, though we have observed a great number of stars" and concluding that there must be as 'Great Filter' is nonsense. The fact that we have studied a star doesnt mean the we have 'observed' it to the degree necesarry to determine if it harbours a civilisation or not. Speculation based on that original false assumption should not be in Wikipedia. WalrusLike (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 02:24, 23 August 2009 (UTC).[reply]

You really have to understand how much our understanding about this topic has changed in just the last two decades. This kind of topic is a relic from a time when even bringing up the subject of inhabited exoplanets would label you as a crank. We are now on the cusp of answering this question, and quite possibly a paradigm shift. The people talking about the "Great Filter" and "Rare Earth" represent the older generation of scientists. Remember, there was a time where if you even discussed plate tectonics you were labeled as a crank, and that was only up until the 1950s. Are we alone? Stay tuned; We're about to find out. Viriditas (talk) 08:19, 23 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Sure, the idea may be wrong. But Wikipedia articles are about "ideas that have been seriously considered", which can be verified, and not ideas that are "correct", since that's often a matter of debate. See, for example, Lamarckism or N ray. So maybe in 50 years folks will think of this as a quaint and antiquated notion, but they should still be able to look it up and see what folks thought at the time. LouScheffer (talk) 12:07, 23 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I have added a fact tag for the current wording in the lead sentence. Please support it directly with a good source. The notion that there has been "considerable effort" is not supported by any known source. There has actually been very little effort and almost no money spent on the idea. In fact, it would cost somewhere around 5 billion just to look for signs of life on Earth-like planets. There's lots of work to do, and claiming that "considerable effort" has been made already is not only wrong, it's ridiculous. Viriditas (talk) 12:47, 23 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
The SETI page, which I linked to, had 10s of searches performed by many different teams. More broadly, all of astronomy constitutes a search for anything that does not have a explanation without invoking intelligence. Many people would consider even the SETI effort (hundreds of person years and tens of millions of dollars) as considerable, and astronomy certainly is. LouScheffer (talk) 19:06, 23 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
The material you keep adding into this article has nothing to do with the Great Filter argument, and remains unsourced after multiple requests for references and a small rewrite. I really don't understand why you are continuing to add this material after I have requested sources which you have failed to provide. The material you have added is also incorrect as we have not even begun to find Earth-like planets. The argument has to do with the fact that we don't see the Solar System or nearby systems colonized, not that we have been observing for years. Please make a note of this and either find sources to support your addition, or I will remove it again. Viriditas (talk) 23:21, 23 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I've removed the following highlighted material:

The Great Filter is an implication of the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe, despite hundreds of years of increasingly sophisticated astronomy and dedicated searches for extraterrestrial intelligence.

There is no "despite" here, and there has not been "hundreds of years" of astronomical observation or greatly funded searches for ET intelligence that amount to anything more than picking up a pile of sand on a large beach and letting it sift through your hands. Please provide sources if you would like to keep adding this statement. I have not found a Great Filter argument that states this, as it is false. Viriditas (talk) 02:09, 24 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Let's look at statements in the "Great Filter" article itself:
"Finally, we expect advanced life to substantially disturb the places it colonizes. Whenever natural systems are not ideally structured to support colonists, we expect changes to be made. And unless ideal structures always either closely mimic natural appearances or are effectively invisible, we expect advanced life to make visible changes."
And how would we see these changes? By conventional astronomy...
"For example, it only takes a small amount of nuclear waste dropped into to visibly change its spectra [Whitmire & Wright 80.] And a civilization might convert enough of a star's asteroids into orbiting solar-energy collectors to collect a substantial fraction of this star's output, thereby substantially changing the star's spectral, temporal, and spatial appearances. Even more advanced colonists may disassemble stars [Criswell 85] or enclose them in Dyson spheres well within a million years of arrival. Galaxies may even be restructured wholesale [Dyson 66]."
"If such advanced life had substantially colonized our planet, we would know it by now. We would also know it if they had restructured most of our solar system's asteroid belt (though much smaller colonies could be hard to detect [Papagiannis 78]).:
And how would we know this? Conventional astronomy
"And they certainly haven't disassembled Jupiter or our sun."
Conventional astronomy
"We should even know it if they had aggressively colonized most of the nearby stars, but left us as a "nature preserve"."
Conventional astronomy
"Our planet and solar system, however, don't look substantially colonized by advanced competitive life from the stars, and neither does anything else we see."
Conventional astronomy
"To the contrary, we have had great success at explaining the behavior of our planet and solar system, nearby stars, our galaxy, and even other galaxies, via simple "dead" physical processes, rather than the complex purposeful processes of advanced life."
Conventional astronomy
"Given how similar our galaxy looks to nearby galaxies, it would even be hard to see how our whole galaxy could be a "nature preserve" among substantially-restructured galaxies."
And yet again
"These considerations strongly suggest that no civilization in our past universe has reached such an "explosive" point, to become the source of a light speed expansion of thorough colonization."
These are ALL based on conventional astronomy, except for the one mention that Earth does not appear to have been colonized.
In short, this is *Directly* supported by the referenced article. LouScheffer (talk) 15:59, 24 January 2010 (UTC)[reply]